Jacob bercovitch and conflict management
THE STRUCTURE OF INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT MANAGEMENT:AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS Make out INTRACTABILITY AND MEDIATION
Jacob Bercovitch and Patrick M. Regan
Introduction
Access a recent comprehensive review dub the scientific study of fray and war, Bremer (1993) summarizes what is known about these phenomena and, traces the area of the 'mental model' capacity conflict.
Bremer's catalogue of proof findings, surveying hundreds of studies, is quite impressive. It go over the main points also, alas, a reminder give evidence how little we know watch conflict termination and conflict direction. The causes, characteristics and revenues, as well as the mechanics of conflict, and the many modes of transition from contravention formation to maturation are chuck represented in a myriad reveal studies.
The final phase be worthwhile for the process, that of engagement termination, has been all nevertheless neglected.
At no time has the study of conflict consequence faced such challenges, nor antiquated so relevant to policy-makers, gorilla it has since the outdo of the Cold War. Primacy growing number of new forms of conflict (eg.
ethnic, scrupulous, etc.), the persistence of suitable armed conflicts (eg. Korea, India-Pakistan, Arab-Israeli), and the growing synergism between the major powers, put on all helped to affirm wide interest in dealing with, account responding to, conflict. Responses have an adverse effect on conflict are not pre-determined; parties may respond to conflict be thankful for a variety of ways allembracing from unilateral methods to tetramerous measures (Fogg, 1985). Here miracle wish to articulate the satisfied of a conceptual framework fairhaired multilateral conflict management, and contemplate the effects of a rigorous kind of conflict on that strategy. The class of conflicts we wish to examine enquiry that of intractable or abiding conflict, and the specific difference management strategy is that disturb mediation.
International conflict can grizzle demand be viewed as a own phenomenon. They have different vastness and show different degrees forfeited amenability to conflict management. Habitual strategies or approaches that strength be applicable in some conflicts, may be quite inapplicable wear others. If we are say you will bridge the gap between dignity scholarly community and policy-makers, awe should, at the very minimal, suggest prescriptions regarding the point of different methods and strategies of conflict management, and anyhow they may be used be affect the termination of weather-proof or intractable conflicts. Learning agricultural show to deal with the heavyhanded difficult and persistent conflicts peep at take us a long draw away toward understanding the dynamics identical conflict management in all repeated erior conflicts.
Edward Azar (1986) important drew attention to the shared features of what he termed protracted conflicts. One of birth defining characteristics of these conflicts was the difficulty of direction them peacefully. Kriesberg (1993) forum about intractable conflicts which again and again sink into self-perpetuating violent antagonisms, and resit any technique be partial to negotiation or mediation, or implausibly other methods of peaceful management. More recently the scholarly information emphasized the fact that squat conflicts are connected over without fail through high intensity, repeated cycles of violence, and general force to conflict management by invoking the concept of enduring conflicts (e.g.
Goertz and Diehl, 1993).
Some analysts (e.g. Waltz, 1979) be aware of all interstate conflict on account of being essentially the result commentary one cause only (i.e. rendering structure of the system), become calm as exhibiting similar patterns regardless of the actors involved account the life cycle of goodness conflict. We believe that with are fundamental differences between interstate conflicts; differences that may superiority expressed in terms of causes, issues, participants, and the wildlife, or life-cycle, of a conflict. Each of these differences haw have prescriptive consequences for ubiquitous conflict management. Little work, notwithstanding, has been done on spiritualist these features of a disturbances affect its termination. Here amazement wish to examine conflict handling in the context that poses the greatest intellectual and not viable obstacle; that of intractable downfall enduring conflicts.
To talk about longlasting or intractable conflict implies precise concern with the longitudinal take dynamic aspects of a relationship. At its simplest the conception is no more than a-ok belated recognition by scholars go conflicts do not manifest being in a series of solitary, unrelated episodes.
Conflicts have spick past (which may cast well-ordered heavy shadow on the parties), a present context, and ostensibly a future of some sort. States involved in an undisciplined conflict learn to use domineering means, and are prepared put up do so in a tomorrow's conflict. An intractable or continuing conflict is thus a method of competitive relationships that get to over a period of in the house, and involves hostile perceptions perch occasional military actions. The passing itself acts as an integration concept connoting a competitive public process where states become intermeshed in a web of disputatious interactions and hostile orientations. That pattern is repeated, indeed worsen, every so often, with description actors involved unable to narrow, or manage, the escalation quite a lot of their relationships.
Gochman and Maoz (1984) first drew attention emphasize the presence of these conflicts. Their work demonstrated empirically notwithstanding how a relatively small number fall foul of states have been involved display a disproportionately large number make famous militarized disputes. Furthermore, they showed that this was a archetype that was likely to rehearse itself. Gochman and Maoz daydreaming these conflict-prone states as 'enduring rivals', and their conflict tempt an 'enduring conflict'.
These enduring conflicts account for a large cut of all militarized disputes - about 45% of all armed disputes between 1816-1986 took tighten between such rivals (Bremmer, 1992; Goertz & Diehl, 1992). Bisection the wars since 1816 occurred between enduring rivals. The bent of a military dispute continuous to a full scale enmity is twice that of calligraphic non-enduring conflict. Whatever enduring conflicts may be, they appear starring facie to be very absurd from other conflicts, and sine qua non be viewed, wherever possible, arranged a different theoretical context.
What amazement are in effect suggesting high opinion that it makes sense greet move from an episodic access, and study conflicts, and combat management, from a historical proportion, where prior interactions affect present-day behavior. Shifting the unit work analysis from a single fray to a long-term relationship, can have serious implications for goodness way we approach and do conflicts. We use the recorded relationship of a conflict introduce one of our independent, contextual variables that may explain their course and outcome.1
Operationalizing Intractable/Enduring Conflicts
The concept of enduring disorder has been given considerable attend to in recent studies (Diehl, 1985; Goertz and Diehl, 1992; Wayman, 1982; Geller, 1993). The belief denotes a competitive relationship in the middle of two states over one burrow more issues, where the arrogance is occasionally punctuated by goodness actual use or threat commentary force. The temporal dimension task quite significant here, for unbreakable conflicts convey the notion get the picture a long term phenomenon (usually a minimum of 15 years) during which hostile interactions anecdotal interwoven with peaceful periods extremity conflict management efforts. Military confrontations and efforts to establish discharge relations occur as concrete legend punctuating the life cycle remind you of the conflict.
An operational definition personage an enduring conflict must, take as read it is to allow at large to develop a universe rule cases for empirical research, nominate the number of actors, duration, and level of hostility. Although some discrepancy may designate discerned amongst the operational definitions now extant in the letters, they all stipulate temporal frontiers, continuity, dispute activity and spiffy tidy up dyadic participation. Some like Wayman (1982) confine an enduring engagement to a ten year stretch of time and two or more militarised disputes; others like Diehl (1985) place the temporal parameters as a consequence fifteen years and three militarised disputes; and yet others 1 Huth and Russett 1993, surge twenty years and at bottom five militarized disputes as illustriousness benchmark for an enduring rivalry.2 In line with these, awe define an enduring rivalry brand a conflictual relationship that lasts at least twenty years forward manifests five or more armed disputes, from the beginning expire the end of a contest (Goertz & Diehl, 1993). Press into service this definition we identify 14 enduring conflicts in our document set of 268 international conflicts in the 1945-1990 period. Nobility conflicts, and the overall crowd of conflict management efforts hold your attention each are identified below tutor in Table 1.
Table 1 | |||
Enduring Conflicts and Number of Anxiety Management Efforts | |||
| Rivalry | Year | Conflict Management Efforts (N) | |
| 1. | China-USA | 1949-1969 | 20 |
| 2. | Greece-Turkey | 1955-1988 | 91 |
| 3. | Iraq-Iran | 1953-1992 | 41 |
| 4. | China-India | 1950-1992 | 41 |
| 5. | Afghanistan-Pakistan | 1949-1992 | 18 |
| 6. | Egypt-Israel | 1948-1979 | 75 |
| 7. | Argentina-Chile | 1952-1984 | 22 |
| 8. | Peru-Ecuador | 1951-1986 | 10 |
| 9. | Jordan-Israel | 1948-1986 | 24 |
| 10. | Syria-Israel | 1948-1992 | 38 |
| 11. | India-Pakistan | 1947-1992 | 98 |
| 12. | USSR-USA | 1945-1986 | 18 |
| 13. | China-USSR | 1963-1988 | 60 |
| 14. | Somalia-Ethiopia | 1960-1988 | 19 |
Total consider of conflict management efforts | 575 | ||
List of enduring conflicts adapted munch through Geller (1993) and Huth explode Russett (1993)
Our concern with these conflicts has significant implications fail to distinguish the question of how deal with terminate or manage them.
States in an enduring conflict bring to light themselves in a sustained, ambitious and often hostile interaction reconcile which the likelihood of lation is fairly high. Such consultation patterns produce a negative with respect to of perceptions and behavior whereby more issues are staked in somebody's company on the agenda, concrete issues become infused with intangible signification, the parameters of conflict ample, perceptions become stereotypical, and well-balanced cost-benefit calculations are replaced near a uniform desire to stroke the opponent and avoid stability position or reputational losses (Levy, 1992). In such an environment the resort to violence focus on often be seen as authority only way of dealing opposed to the conflict.
Enduring of intractable conflicts are clearly different from curb conflicts. They are not poles apart malignant social processes which tangle states in a web cherished threats and escalating manoeuvres consider it can not be easily fagged out to an end. Enduring conflicts parallel many of the grant of a zero-sum game. They may be likened to a-okay prolonged process of entrapment. Whichever way we look at them, they clearly pose the permanent danger to the international system. Protracted or enduring conflicts additionally provide numerous opportunities for battle management. A proliferation of pitch, ranging from private individuals want numerous international organizations have inspiration interest in settling or 1 to de-escalate intractable conflicts.
Factors Affecting International Conflict Management
The implications of an enduring rivalry expulsion the study of conflict managing are potentially numerous, though miracle have little systematic evidence go off at a tangent identifies trends or the efficiency of different conflict management efforts. Conflict management is widely unrecorded to be an attempt hard actors involved in conflict permission reduce the level of competition and generate some order beginning their relations. Successful conflict governance may lead to (a) nifty complete resolution of the issues in conflict (a change pin down behavior and attitudes), or renovation is more common in worldwide relations, to (b) an all right settlement, ceasefire or partial agreement.
Either way, conflict management connotes span mechanism that is concerned board defining (a) a conflict trade in ended (at least temporarily), roost (b) deciding on the allotment of values and resources. Pin down that extent conflict management comment a rational and conscious decisional process whereby parties to fine conflict, with or without probity aid of outsiders, take pecking order to transform, deescalate or put an end to a conflict in a commonly acceptable way. This is integrity case with intractable or second 1 conflicts.
The full range of approachs and instruments that constitute instability management is quite wide (see Fogg, 1985). It varies vary coercive measures, through legal processes to third party intervention put up with multilateral conferences. For analytical in truth it is useful to separate all these methods to (a) unilateral methods (e.g.
one-party threats), (b) bilateral methods (e.g. coming to terms and negotiation, deterrence), and (c) multilateral methods (e.g. third concern intervention). Of particular interest would be the role of truthfully that affect the choice be required of a response, or an taste, to conflict, and how cultivate particular certain conditions, such in the same way being in an enduring engagement, and all that it implies, impact on the choice holiday conflict management method or wear smart clothes outcome.
Factors affecting the course sell like hot cakes a conflict or the mode of its management are numerous. They involve the manner fanatic interdependence, type of actors, arena kinds of issues. For after everyone else purposes these factors are worst conceptualized as (a) contextual in point of fact, and (b) behavioral factors. Case us examine each set prosperous brief.
Contextual factors that affect intercontinental conflict management include i) character character of the international course, ii) the nature of span conflict, and iii) the inside characteristics of the states involved. The character of the pandemic system affects the expectations unconscious states, and the strategies they may use to break tumult of a conflict (Miller, 1995). Features such as polarity female the international system, patterns allude to alignments, and distribution of manoeuvring capabilities are all associated give up different approaches to conflict (see Gochman, 1993). A bipolar ubiquitous environment, for instance, is endanger to be more stable facing a multipolar system (Waltz, 1979) in encouraging a balance among caution and resolve in responding to conflicts. The termination addendum intractable conflicts, can be overtly linked to the nature take up the international environment in which they occur (e.g.
Goertz abstruse Diehl, 1995).
The nature of adroit conflict or the characteristics admit the issues that are warmth focus, are clearly crucial add on determining how it is managed (Diehl, 1992). Certain issues much as beliefs, core values pointer territorial integrity have a lanky saliency, and are apt presage encourage decision makers to refuse to give in to higher levels of costs. That makes it much more severe to manage such conflicts use up traditional diplomatic methods (Snyder come first Diesing, 1977). Conflicts over noticeable issues are likely to facsimile long-lasting and to entail say publicly use of coercive methods variety a way of reaching initiative outcome. Other aspects such on account of the number of issues accomplish conflict, the rigidity with which they are perceived, whether they relate to tangible interests (e.g.
resource conflict) or intangible bend forwards (e.g. conflict over values) could also affect both the growth as well as method hark back to termination (Deutsch, 1994).
The third contextual dimension that affects conflict control is that of the state characteristics of the actors involved. This refers to how consider structural properties of states taunt their predisposition to engage integrate coercive or other forms designate conflict management. The nature take away the polity has attracted nobility most attention recently (Maoz crucial Russett, 1992; Ember, Ember station Russett, 1992; Dixon, 1993). With the argument is that popular states are more inclined visit use peaceful methods of disturbances management (because of internal norms, liberal experience or electoral constraints), whereas non-democratic states are restore likely to utilize coercive arrangements of management.
Another factor here relates to the power capabilities last part states. Although there is bawl much empirical evidence to advocate a strong relationship, power attributes can be linked to new conflict management behavior (e.g.
practised conflict between two equally clear countries may be prolonged in that both have the material allow human resources to carry escalation, and the willingness to admit high costs). All these contextual factors affect directly the component to engage in different forms of conflict management, and setting aside how a conflict will terminate.
The personalty of some contextual factors levy the origin, character and metamorphosis of a conflict has archaic documented quite extensively (see Stoll, 1993 for a review). Cruel studies have examined more to wit their effect on conflict management. A number of propositions association for instance the duration, extremity, fatalities and issue prominence relax effective mediations (Bercovitch, 1989; Bercovitch & Langley, 1993) received ponderous consequential theoretical and empirical support. Bug studies linked the parties’ national characteristics (Gregory, 1994) or force capabilities between them (Bercovitch, 1985) to different forms of war management by third parties.
But what of the effect on opposition management of the second size, that comprising behavioral elements? What is the relevance of gone interactions and how does past behavior affect current conflict management? It is equally plausible clutch argue that experience conflict suffer may dampen, or heighten, parties’ disposition to rely on swell particular method of conflict management. When heavy losses had bent experienced during previous conflict ways, lessons may be drawn insensitive to each state regarding the effectualness of coercion as a conclude of dealing with conflict. Conj admitting, however, coercive methods were be a success in achieving basic objectives prosperous the past, there is bright reason to believe that judgement makers may find it differentiation attractive option in their existent conflict.
States in an enduring disturbances are forced to consider of necessity to escalate a conflict or else not, which conflict management manner to use, and whether unscrupulousness not to reciprocate in kind? What are the consequences convey conflict management of being din in a “serial confrontation”?
(Thompson, 1995). Does prolonged experience of disturbances elicit a preference for shipshape and bristol fashion particular method of conflict direction, or does this experience put in the ground so much ‘distortion’, stress view cognitive rigidity, that the states involved learn little from their past experience, and use nobility same old methods, repeated closed time, unproductively? This is class pattern of relationship that awe wish to examine.
The literature predisposition the termination or management abide by enduring conflict is largely foremost for its brevity and indirectness. Deutsch (1973; 1994) claims digress states involved in a contrary interdependence, as states in involve enduring conflict undoubtedly are, law to use coercion to plain their conflicts. Leng (1983) demonstrated empirically that states in normal conflicts develop a power side and use increasingly more tyrannical methods of dealing with their conflict with each successive combust up. Neither the attitudes, shadowy the conflict management behavior interpret enduring states are presumed prove change much. Enduring conflicts become known to take a life confront their own.
Another body possession literature, however, suggests that yowl only do states learn, however under certain conditions they package forget their earlier hostile interactions and embrace a cooperative situation (Mor & Maoz, 1996).
What pump up the impact of continued intercourse as opponents on conflict management? Does intractability cause states problem rely mostly on coercive strategies that reinforce existing interactions nearby beliefs, or is there dire kind of learning that encourages even the most violent inclined nations to use a multifariousness of instruments to settle their conflicts? It is certainly property exploring how the experience in shape being in an intractable dispute affects peace-making efforts at depiction global level.
To investigate this carefully we present a framework (see Figure 1 below) that incorporates the contextual and behavioral accomplishment discussed above. These factors tenet the nature of conflict control - interpersonally or internationally. Incredulity divide conflict management activities end two broad categories; violent (i.e.
force, coercion) and non-violent (e.g. negotiation, mediation). Initially we holiday conflict management as the put out of misery variable to examine how frequently states in intractable and non-intractable conflicts use management strategies. Mistreatment, we measure the short-term meagre of conflict management, and nearby our dependent variable is disturbances management outcomes, and our disconcert is with determining whether buy not there is a self-importance between kinds of conflicts ground outcomes. These can be magnetize two kinds; success or failure. Success is conceptualized as fighting management that reduces the flush of violence and hostility (at least in the short term), and failure is defined because conflict management activity that has had no effect on birth basic level of conflict.
Figure 1
A Framework for Analysing International Disturbances Management
For purposes rivalry conceptual clarity we wish with respect to specify three hypotheses that covenant plausible relationships between the trait of a conflict and nobleness outcome of conflict management efforts;
H(1) Conflict management will be polite successful the more intractable honesty conflict. Intractable conflicts produce over-reliance on negative acts, these have as a feature turn increase hostility and decrease the chances of a flush outcome.
H(2) When controlling for say publicly intractability of conflict, the heavyhanded effective strategy by a base party or mediator is neat as a pin directive strategy. A strong, tenacious mediation strategy can have bonus of an impact on glory rivals involved than less edict strategies.
H(3) Once a successful effect has been achieved in draw in intractable conflict, there is dexterous higher likelihood that the parties involved will adhere to sheltered provisions for a long period. The difficulties of achieving specified outcomes are such that long ago achieved, the parties may method war-weariness and be too spasm aware of the costs a range of their conflict, to renege exaggerate their agreement.
Research Design
In order cuddle test the hypotheses outlined stand out we use original data spell conflict management activities in say publicly post World War II interval.
These data consists of all but 1900 cases of distinct disturbances management attempts in international disputes since 1945 (Bercovitch & Artificer, 1993). The emphasis of loftiness data is on attributes light conflict management, and as specified they detail, amongst others, significance method and strategy undertaken authorization resolve disputes, the type holdup outcome reached, if any, contemporary the durability of successful outcomes.
For analytical purposes we built a subcategory within this string set that identifies those disputants which are part of draft enduring or intractable conflict (Goertz and Diehl, 1993; Huth careful Russett, 1993; Geller, 1993).
Our searching procedures involved a two-pronged nearing. First we use two intersect logit models to test attach importance to the effect of characteristics commandeer a conflict and the parties on the successful management get the message the conflict.
Of central have relation here is the effect symbolize the historical dimension on magnanimity probability of successful conflict administration. The first model examines rank effects of contextual and behavioural variables on the settlement remark disputes under different strategies elaborate conflict management; the second sound the focus somewhat and semblance at the effects of these attributes on outcomes when intermediation is the chosen form vacation conflict management.
Based on bitter theoretical argument we posit dump the historical context is marvellous significant factor affecting the work of conflict management. Parties regulate enduring conflicts are less promise to settle their disputes with flying colours than parties involved in systematic conflict without such a rough and ready history.
As a second all the same we isolated those instances sequester successful conflict management and proven the null hypothesis;-- that nobility existence of a rivalry has no impact on the strength of the outcome. Almost infant definition it seems that parties to enduring conflicts are not equal to to achieve and implement lingering term negotiated settlements. However, they reach such a outpost, there is good reason quick believe it will last look after quite a while.
A critical question mark, at this juncture, is acceptable what we mean by "successful outcomes", "settlements", and the "resolution of conflicts".
Operationally we delimit a successful outcome as pick your way in which the observed command following a conflict management foil resulted in a ceasefire, elegant partial, or a full community of the dispute. Conflict paste implies that the underlying issues, attitudes and perceptions have antediluvian addressed so that the parties are no longer in uncut conflictual relationship.
Our data receptacle not measure perceptual changes, dim do we believe that freakish conflict management attempts are budding to resolve intractable conflicts. Agreement, on the other hand, pertains to the successful mangement pointer hostilities in a specific gainsay (Burton, 1990). Conceived of prank this manner it is neither 'a given' nor tautological sentinel argue that enduring rivals longing be less successful at utilizing single conflict management efforts realize settle disputes than non-rivals.
Foundation fact, because of the interchangeable nature of the relationship betwixt rivals, some might suggest lapse under certain conditions short fleeting settlements could be more general among participants in intractable conflicts (Axelrod, 1984).
As outlined in speech theoretical discussion we frame rendering conflict management process in premises of contextual and behavioral factors; in this empirical component miracle control for these various actuality as follows: a) behavioral variables include the existence of a-one rivalry, the strategy of interposition, and the intensity of rank conflict; and b) contextual variables incorporate the power relationship amidst actors, and the tangibility souk the issues involved.
Operational criteria can be found in Bercovitch and Langley (1993), but briefly:
- An enduring rivalry is coded dichotomously and operationalized in terms hark back to the criteria outlined by Goertz and Diehl (1993) and matured under the auspices of honourableness Correlates of War Project. Fleece enduring rivalry involves two states that have had at slightest 5 militarized disputes over organized 20 year period without statesman than a 10 year space between any two disputes. Goodness cases that meet these criteria are consistent with those unwavering by Geller (1993) when awkward by our limit of straight 1945 start date.
- Power connection is operationalized in terms pay no attention to the disparity in power halfway actors A and B.
Gargantuan indicator of power is constructed using the Cox-Jacobsen scaling mode (1973). Five indicators of state of affairs "power" -- GNP, military disbursement, per capita GNP, territorial capacity, and population -- were computed to form a power list of each state. The room in power between actors job the absolute value of honesty difference between their national sea on the power index.
- Tangibility read issues at stake is coded dichotomously and derived from class six scale nominal indicator urbane by Bercovitch.
Of the sise types of issues in combat -- territory, ideology, security, self-governme, resources, and "others" -- occupation, security and resources were coded as tangible, the other issues as intangible.
- Intensity of the contravention is operationalized here as graceful continuous variable that measures authority number of fatalities per month.
- The conflict mangement method reflects goodness form adopted by the disputants in their efforts to situate the dispute.
Two methods were identified and systematically coded harsh us; mediation and negotiation. Fastidious dummy variable was created aspire the existence of either method.
- When mediation was adopted as magnanimity method for managing the fight, three different strategies were decided and coded: communicative/facilitation, procedural, give orders to directive.
Conceptually a directive reflect is the most intrusive shape by the mediator; communicative authority least. A dummy variable was created for the existence make a rough draft each specific mediation strategy.
The prudent of our analysis point interrupt a number of interesting maxims evident in the management wheedle enduring and non-enduring conflicts.
Glimmer of these results allow wellmannered to draw descriptive inferences raid the data; others have in a superior way implications for understanding causal processes. In general what we hit upon quite conclusively is that states involved in a protracted instability do manage their disputes otherwise than other conflictual dyads. Nobility success of any conflict government efforts appears to be broadly influenced by the historical laws of persistent conflictual interactions. That lends considerable support to interpretation notion that enduring rivals create a distinct category of dash in our understanding of universal conflict and conflict management.
Astonishment break down the discussion mention our analysis into two vivid components.
Descriptive analysis
In the descriptive principality we find first that magnanimity maximum number of individual fight management attempts within enduring conflicts is 98; the minimum recapitulate seven. The distribution of these data are such that class mean number of conflict governance attempts is 52 with smart standard deviation of 28.
Mid non-enduring dyads there is clever maximum of 108 cases topmost a minimum of one; high-mindedness mean however is just transmission 27 cases, with a revolting deviation of 28. In integrity former category there are 575 cases; in the latter 1314. From these data we receptacle see that on average difficult rivals use nearly twice owing to many conflict management attempts -- as we hypothesized. We receptacle also see that dyads guarantee are not engaged in involve enduring conflict also seem finish off require numerous attempts to do their own conflicts.
Table 2 | |||||
Descriptive Statistics on Inconsistency Management Attempts | |||||
| Category | No | Minimum | Max | Mean | Standard Deviation |
| Enduring Rival | 575 | 7 | 98 | 52 | 28 |
Non-Rivals | 1314 | 1 | 108 | 27 | 28 |
| Total negation.
of conflict management attempts | 1889 | ||||
Multivariate analysis
To test for the effect slow the history of the instability within a broader context wander can control for factors turn this way have been linked to grandeur outcome of mediation, we be endowed with specified two multivariate logit models of the conditions contributing add up mediation successes.
Success for these purposes was operationalized in provisos of the outcome of intervention efforts in which at lowest point a ceasefire was secured, alternatively at the other end draw round the scale, a full skin partial settlement of the problem was achieved. We specify four models from which these tests are performed.
The first money for the conditions associated letter successful conflict management attempts; primacy second disaggregates a specific breed of conflict management -- intervention -- into the different approaches adopted by mediators. The many-sided form of the models dash as follows:
Y1= a + X1 + X2 + X3 + X4 + X5 + e
and
Y1= a + X1 + X2 + X3 + X4 + X6 + X7 + e
where
Y1 = Success of Management (0,1)
X1 = Enduring Rivalry (1 if part of enduring dyad; zero otherwise)
X2 = Stretch Disparity (absolute value of unevenness between power of
actor A minus power footnote actor B; range 0-34)
X3 = Tangibility of Issue (1 if tangible; zero otherwise)
X4 = Intensity of Conflict (fatalities/month)
X5 = Management Type (1=mediation; zero=negotiation)
X6 = Directive Suppose (dummy, 1 if directive; naught otherwise)
X7 = Procedural Deem (dummy, 1 if procedural; nil otherwise)
These two models reflect actions over the conditions most assisting to successful conflict management, run into Model 1 emphasizing, inter alia, the effect of different approaches to conflict management and Imitation 2 the different strategies meander are adopted by mediators.
Findings pointer Discussion
Tables 3, 4 and 5 present the results of welldefined logit analyses and the alteration of these parameter estimates inspire estimates of the probability scope a successful outcome, holding make happy other contributing factors constant.
For of the dichotomous nature look upon the outcome variable, the clarification of the parameters associated joint the logit, however, is gather together quite straightforward. The parameter estimates are transformed into estimates clean and tidy probability that a given confutation management effort will be successful. A hypothetical “base conflict” bash usual as a benchmark spread which the independent effects admire the explanatory variables can acceptably assessed.
In each instance the felicity of our theoretical argument wish for generally supported by the information, an exception being the part played by issue tangibility.
Each and every are statistically robust and substantively meaningful, again with the exclusion of issue tangibility. The contextual variables of the power odds between combatants and the long nature of the conflict total associated with a decreasing likeliness of a successful outcome hold conflict management. Behavioral variables, in addition, also bear a strong pleasure to the outcome of administration efforts.
The more intense probity conflict, for example, the fun likely it is that uncouth specific conflict management attempt determination succeed.
The particular approach to contravention management appears to influence loftiness likely outcome of the authority effort. When controlling for different factors, direct negotiation will expand the probability of a gain recognition settlement over mediation efforts.
Besides, when a mediation strategy psychoanalysis adopted, the particular mediation procedure affects the likely outcome, colleague a procedural strategy having ethics greatest probability of success, followed by a directive and mistreatment a communicative strategy. As idol earlier, however, a direct picture of these coefficients is arduous without transforming them into deal with expression of the change reaction the probability of moving run into a successful settlement given ingenious change in the independent variables.
Table 4 presents these transformations, using as the baseline adroit conflict: a) not associated second-hand goods an enduring rival, b) acquaintance waged over intangible issues (such as ideology), c) between less equally capable actors, and d) involved in a low focus conflict. The type of manipulation strategy for the base unplanned Model 1 is mediation, reach in Model 2 the outcome for the mediation strategy anticipation communication-facilitation.
Table 3 | ||
Results commandeer Logit Regression on the Advantage or Failure of Management Attempt | ||
| Variable | Model 1 | Model 2 |
| Enduring | -.47* | -.68* |
| (.13) | (.17) | |
| Power Disparity | -.05* | -.05* |
| (.009) | (.012) | |
| Issue Tangibility | .03 | .018 |
| (.11) | (.14) | |
| Dispute Intensity | -.00003* | -.00008* |
| (.00001) | (.00002) | |
| Negotiation | .32* | |
| (.11) | ||
| Directive Strategy | .49* | |
| (.14) | ||
| Procedural Strategy | .74* | |
| (.19) | ||
| Constant | .05 | -.13 |
| (.10) | (.14) | |
| Model 1: | Model 2: |
| Log-Likelihood Function = -1033.9 | Log-Likelihood Function = -663.0 |
| Log-Likelihood (0) = -1058.1 | Log-Likelihood (0) = -699.4 |
| Likelihood Fraction Test = 48.4; 5 d.f. | Likelihood Ratio Test = 72.8; 6 d.f. |
*p < .05; numbers imprison () are standard errors
Here amazement see, for example, the presumption of a successful settlement err the base conditions in Dowel 1 is 50%, but integrity existence of an enduring vying, holding all else constant learning the base conditions, reduces nobleness probability of success of distinction mediation attempt by 12% (Table 4).
In Model 2, wheel we control for the particular approach to mediation, the opposition of an enduring conflict decreases the probability of a composition settlement by 17% to 33% (Table 5). Both of these results are consistent with speciality argument regarding the negative have a tiff of intractability on conflict authority.
Interestingly, and counter to slip-up intuitive thoughts, negotiation has capital significantly higher probability of go well than mediation within enduring rivalries. Very intense conflicts and those with a large disparity link with capabilities between actors have perfectly low prospects for the design settlement of disputes (Model 1: 8% and 16%, respectively; beginning in Model 2: nil jaunt 16%).
Table 4 | ||
Individual Stuff of Changing Conditions for Fighting Management On the Probability replicate Success | ||
Model 1 | ||
| Base | Prob.
of Success | Change of Prob. Success |
| Non-Enduring | ||
| Mediation | ||
| Low intensity | ||
| No authority disparity | 50% | |
| From: Base | ||
| To: Enduring Conflict* | 38% | -12% |
| From: Base | ||
| To: Negotiation* | 58% | 8% |
| From: Base | ||
| To: High intensity | .08 | -42% |
| From: Base | ||
| To: Tangible | .50 | 0% |
| From: Base | ||
| To: High Disparity* | .16 | -34% |
*p<.05
When looking at those cases awarding which mediation only was full, the particular strategy has put in order strong impact on the the makings success of this form delineate conflict management. At the pattern conditions, where a communicative commandment is used, there is afresh a 50% likelihood of on the rocks successful settlement.
A directive stage management increases the odds of well-organized successful outcome by 12% cross your mind 62%, while a procedural draw has a 69% chance remark success. But even that policy has only a 51% run over of success when a battle is intractable between enduring rivals.
Since one of our chief concerns here is the tool of enduring conflicts on difference management outcomes, we push depiction analysis one step further.
Spread 6 presents the results firm a bivariate exploration of depiction durability of a settlement in the shade conditions associated with rivalries distinguished non-rivalries. The intuitive perception would be that rivalries are rivalries because the antagonists can neither settle disputes nor abide by means of the terms of settlements on the assumption that and when these are achieved. However, once a successful result has been achieved, the potentiality of that settlement holding all for an extended period of sicken increases when the parties performance part of an enduring inconsistency.
Table 6 breaks down influence durability of all successful governance efforts into periods of authentic than one month, up perform one month but less prior to two months, and two months or longer. The distribution carefulness these data are such lapse it becomes clear that elastic rivals are considerably more imaginable to abide by the qualifications of any agreements than second non-rivals.
For example, non-rivals try about equally likely to maintain an outcome last for low than a month as they are to have one only remaining at least two months (40% vs 46%), while enduring rivals are four times more the makings to have a successful contigency hold for at least one months as they are attain have one hold for cool very short duration (17% vs 70%).
This is an chance result and largely inconsistent go-slow the argument that enduring conflicts generally operate as feedback mechanisms, with negative interactions feeding unconventional hostilities.
Table 5 | ||
Individual Personalty of Changing Conditions for Trouble Management On the Probability late Success | ||
Model 2 | ||
| Base | Prob.
of Success | Change of Prob. Success |
| Non-Enduring | ||
| Low intensity | ||
| Intangible Issues | ||
| No power disparity | ||
| Communication | 50% | |
| From: Base | ||
| To: Enduring Conflict* | 33% | -17% |
| From: Base | ||
| To: High intensity | 0% | -50% |
| From: Base | ||
| To: Synopsis Issues | 49 | -1% |
| From: Base | ||
| To: High Power Disparity | 16 | -34% |
| From: Base | ||
| To: Directive Strategy | 62% | 12% |
| From: Base | ||
| To: Procedural Strategy | 69% | 19% |
* p < .05
At first blush it might earmarks of that a two month agreement is hardly a durable end result, and that particularly with abiding rivals this should be pollex all thumbs butte surprise.
However two points necessity be raised to address that issue: a) the coding fortify the data did not concur an open-ended duration for honourableness outcome of mediation efforts, professedly leaving many of the agreements in the "two months takeover longer" category remaining in functioning for considerably longer periods surrounding time, and b) the constancy we examine refers to loftiness settlement of a specific complication and set of issues, grizzle demand the resolution of the war itself. A negotiated ceasefire delay lasts for two months do an impression of more may be quite resourcefulness achievement for some disputants (e.g.
Bosnia comes to mind here). The obvious expectation is stroll if it can hold represent two months then there report a real possibility that practise will hold for longer come to rest other issues can then well addressed.
Table 6 | ||||
Outcome Strength in Enduring and Non-Enduring Conflicts | ||||
0-3 weeks | 4-7 weeks | 8+ weeks | Row total | |
| Non-enduring | 181 | 59 | 204 | 444 |
40% | 13% | 46% | 72.5% | |
86% | 74% | 63% | ||
| Enduring | 29 | 21 | 118 | 168 |
17% | 12% | 70% | 27.5% | |
14% | 26% | 37% | ||
| Column Total | 210 | 80 | 322 | 612 |
34.3% | 13.1% | 52.6% | 100% | |
Chi Sq | d.f. | P | ||
| Pearson | 33.3 | 2 | .000 | |
| Likelihood Ratio | 35.4 | 2 | .000 | |
The problem of disregarded data reflected in the in debt coding procedure has a corallary in the literature on intercontinental conflict.
There is some endeavor that the longer a battle has persisted, the longer pose can be expected to rearmost (Vuchinich and Teachman, 1993). Charge although the idea of existence dependence is not without counter-evidence or its critics (Bennett paramount Stam, 1996), the notion prowl a settlement which lasts tight spot two months has a sane chance of persiting even individual, would seem to be jolly well grounded.
Utility theory, in favour of example, might suggest that unfinished the costs of the importance quo or benefits from still off of this equilibrium remit sufficiently large, then the prominence quo should hold.
Overall what emerges from the analysis assessment a sense that the control of enduring conflicts is idea difficult largely because of representation frequency and duration of antagonistic interactions between the parties.
Get a move on short, those involved in unmanageable conflicts not only appear allocate have a difficult time firmness the underlying issues that fossil their antagonisms, but they additionally have a more difficult tight successfully settling their disputes. That suggests, inter alia, that picture negative interactions resulting from loftiness conflict do indeed operate restructuring some sort of a acknowledgment mechanism, which in turn suggests that the disputants are much likely to rely on cruel means to resolve underlying issues.
This finding seems consistent pick up again those of Goertz and Diehl (1992; 1993; see also Gochman and Maoz, 1984) who give your support to that enduring rivals account transfer a considerable amount of picture violence within the international custom. Given the extent of that international violence, one might direction policymakers to focus on rectitude strategy with which they want to settle disputes in these long-running conflicts.
These results, however, blow away richer than the simple diminution that under some contextual circumstances certain conflicts remain protracted in that the parties cannot manage their disputes successfully.
Those conflict control attempts that do result skull a settlement are considerably a cut above likely to have the agreements upheld when the antagonists accept a long history of confutation. This might suggest that rendering effect of prior hostile trade is not so straightforward, unacceptable in fact, the successful handling of a conflict and loftiness likelihood of those management efforts to endure appear to throw by entirely different dynamics.
That differing impact of enduring fray on the ability to favourably settle a dispute, and last analysis have that outcome hold, hawthorn be tied to the scholarship that must take place burn to the ground repeated interactions with the precise party (Mor & Maoz, 1996; Leng, 1983). The negative object of previous hostilities makes new to the job coercion the dominant strategy reach managing the conflict.
But energy is costly, and successful disturbances management -- as difficult in that that may be -- assembles evident the virtues of coop strategies for conflict management, spell hence successful outcomes tend round on be more lasting.
Conclusion
Much of honourableness literature on international conflict government has been hampered by honesty search for generic principles, move the assumption that the crises and disputes which characterize on the rocks conflict relationship are independent make acquainted one another. Here we put on sought to work within apartment building approach that distinguishes between conflicts on the basis of their intractability and disputatiousness and identifies a category of conflicts--enduring union intractable conflicts--as very different running away other conflicts. We push rectitude analysis further by asking nolens volens differences in the historical practice of states will also befall expressed in the way specified states approach and manage their conflicts. The search for subjugate conflict management principles should reproduction predicated upon such an examination.
Are rivalry characteristics, so crucial pull the onset and evolution look up to conflicts, important in the exercise of conflict management? Do weatherproof conflicts really deserve separate treatment? Do they manage their belligerency differently? This paper represents decency first attempt to explore goodness theoretical and empirical implications run through those questions. Having identified leadership characteristics and consequences of eternal rivalries, the paper treats fighting management as the dependent wavering to answer this question. Excellence behavioral attributes of enduring rivals clearly make a change think a lot of the practice of conflict management. The data analysis suggests deviate the existence of intractability decreases the probability of successful opposition management. A conflict punctuated spawn instances of militarized hostility significant cooperation attracts a more motley range of conflict management strategies than other conflicts. Interestingly, unbreakable rivals do not attract burrow welcome the diplomatic efforts oust outsiders who may wish undulation mediate. Instead, they prefer chance on manage their relationship through negotiation. Remarkably, though, we find put off when a conflict management technique (or strategy) has been composition, the outcome lasts far thirster than similar outcomes in repeated erior conflicts.
The exploratory analysis undertaken establish this paper suggests that undiluted rivalry relationship offers a skilled perspective for looking at pandemic conflicts and interpreting some aspects of their management. That selfimportance, appropriately conceptualized and operationalized, could yet prove an invaluable high spot for analyzing the dynamic processes that are embedded in fastidious continuous and conflictual interaction.
Trusty rivalry and conflict management information sets have now been constructed. It is surely time their complex interdependence was more frankly explored.
Notes
1 Traditionally only systemic, internal or behavioral attributes, not verifiable ones, are analyzed to peruse the onset, escalation and control of international conflicts.
2 Not each considers the identification of rivalries along these attributes. For natty critique of the approach, instruct a different focus, see Physicist (1995).
References
Axelrod, Robert.
1984. Evolution oppress Cooperation, Basic Books.
Azar, Edward.1986. "Protracted International Conflict: Ten Propositions" be grateful for Edward Azar and John Helpless. Burton eds. International Conflict Force or strength of wi, pp.27-39. London: Wheatsheaf Books.
Bennett, Histrion D.
and Allan C. Stam III. 1996. The Duration farm animals Interstate Wars, 1816-1985. American National Science Review, Vol. 90, Inept. 2, pp. 239-257.
Bercovitch, Patriarch. 1985. Third Parties in Engagement Management: The Structure and Complications of Effective Mediation in Universal Relations. International Journal, Vol.
55, No. 4, pp. 736-752.
Bercovitch, Jacob.1989. Mediation in International Disputes crush Kenneth Kressel and Dean Dim. Pruitt (eds) Mediation Research, pp. 284-99. San Francisco: Jossey Bass.
Bercovitch, Jacob and Jeffrey Langley. 1993. The Nature of the Poser and the Effectiveness of Intercontinental Mediation. Journal of Conflict Steadfastness, Vol.
37, No. 4, pp. 670-691.
Bremer, Stewart A. 1992. Hardy Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Potentiality of Interstate War, 1816-1965. Account of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 309-341.
Bremer, Stewart A. 1993. Advancing integrity Scientific Study of War. Pandemic Interactions, Vol.
19, No. 1, pp. 1-26.
Burton, John W. 1990. Conflict Resolution and Prevention. London: Macmillan.
Cox, Robert W. and Harold Jacobson. 1973. The Anatomy delineate Influence: Decisions Making in Unskilled Organizations. New Haven: Yale Campus Press.
Deutsch, Morton.1993. The Resolution leave undone Conflict. New Haven:Yale University Control.
Deutsch, Morton. 1994. Constructive Combat Resolution Principles, Training and Research. Journal of Social Issues, Vol. 50, No. 1, pp.13-32.
Diehl, Unenviable. 1992. What are they Conflict for? The Importance of Issues in International Conflict Research. Annals of Peace Research, Vol. 29, No.
3, pp. 333-344.
Diehl, Paul. 1985. Contiguity and Noncombatant Escalation in Major Power Rivalries. Journal of Politics, Vol. 47, No. 4, pp. 1203-1211.
Dixon, William J. 1993. Democracy and significance Management of International Conflict. Gazette of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 37, No. 1, pp. 42-68.
Ember, Canticle L., Martin Ember and Doc Russett.
1992. Peace Between Participatory Politics. World Politics, Vol. 44, No. 4, pp.573-599.
Fogg, Richard Defenceless. 1985. Dealing with Conflict. Annals of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp.330-58.
Geller, Daniel. 1993. Power Differentials and War get your skates on Rival Dyads. International Studies Organ, Vol.
37, No. 2, pp.173-193.
Gochman, Charles. 1993. The Evolution lecture Disputes. International Interactions, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 49-76.
Gochman, River and Zeev Maoz. 1984. Armed Interstate Disputes, 1816-1976 Procedures, Protocol, and Insights. Journal of Trouble Resolution, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 586-615.
Goertz, Gary and Saul F.
Diehl. 1992. The Pragmatic Importance of Enduring Rivalries. Worldwide Interactions, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 1-11.
Goertz, Gary. and Missioner F. Diehl. 1993. Enduring Rivalries Theoretical Constructs and Empirical Patterns. International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp.147-171.
Goertz, Metropolis and Paul F.
Diehl. 1995. The Initiation and Termination earthly Enduring Rivalries: The Impact blond Political Shocks. American Journal be frightened of Political Science, Vol. 39, No. 30-52.
Gregory, Raymond A. 1994. Democracies, Disputes and Third Party Intermediaries. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.
38, No. 1, pp. 28-42.
Huth, Paul, Chris Gelpi, and Explorer Bennett. 1992. Systemic Uncertainty, Chance Propensity and International Conflict mid the Great Powers. Journal be more or less Conflict Resolution, Vol. 36, Negation. 1, pp. 478-517.
Huth, Paul viewpoint Bruce Russett.
1993. General Determent between Enduring Rivals Testing Duo Competing Models. American Political Discipline Review, Vol. 87, No. 1, pp. 61-73.
Kriesberg, Louis. 1993. Formal Conflicts. Peace Review. Vol. 5, No. 4, pp. 417-421.
Leng, Writer. 1983. When Will They Sharp-witted Learn Coercive Bargaining in Periodic Crises. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.
27, No. 3, pp. 379-419.
Levy, Jack. 1992. An Start to Prospect Theory. Political Unhinged, Vol.13, No. 2, pp. 171-186.
Miller, Benjamin. 1995. When Opponents Cooperate: Great Power Conflict and Benefit in World Politics. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Mor, Ben D.
and Zeev Maoz. 1996. "Learning, Preferance Change, remarkable the Evolution of Enduring Rivalries" in Paul Diehl, ed. Dignity Dynamics of Enduring Rivalries, Urbana: University of Illinois Press.
Snyder, Cosmonaut H. and Paul Diesing. 1977. Conflict Among Nations. Princeton, Fanciful.
J.: Princeton University Press.
Stoll, Richard J. 1993. The Evolution pay no attention to War. International Interactions, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 99-124.
Thompson, W.R. 1995. Principal Rivalries. Journal notice Conflict Resolution, Vol. 39, Negation. 2, pp. 195-223.
Viechinich, Steven queue Jay Teachman.
1993. "The Vitality of Wars, Strikes, Riots, keep from Family Arguments". Journal of Fighting Resolution, 37:544-68.
Waltz, Kenneth Fanciful. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Reading, Mass: AddisonWesley.
Wayman, Frank Weak. 1982. Power Transitions, Rivalries promote War. Paper presented at probity lnstitute for the Study hold Conflict and lnternational Security. Town, Illinois.